Transport Demand Forecasting

Aim

The course aims to provide basic knowledge in planning and forecast based on modelling of passenger transports in the traffic systems. The mathematical models analyzed in the course aim at estimating the travel demand and the effect of this demand on the transport system. The course provides an overview of problems and applications in the area of traffic planning, and gives insights into how traffic models may be used for the analysis of traffic systems to make the system more efficient, safer and more environmentally friendly. Furthermore, the course will help the student to gain insights into the underlying theories on which the models are based. The course covers both supply and demand modelling, and the focus is on demand modelling.

After the course, the student shall be able to:

• Describe the basics for traffic planning, traffic simulation and traffic modelling such as trip generation and trip distribution
• Describe and analyze route choice models and assignment methods for network assignment
• Motivate and derive basic discrete choice models for travel mode choice and demand modelling
• Estimate parameters in discrete choice models
• Formulate, use and combine models for trip generation and distribution, route choice, and demand models for evaluating future traffic scenarios
• Develop models for updating demand matrices from flow and speed observations
• Apply choice models for modelling demand, mode and route in a traffic network
• Make use of tools for applying the models stated above

Content

• Introduction to traffic planning and traffic simulation
• Classification of traffic models
• Route choice model and assignment principles for network assignment
• Experiments with network assignment models
• Discrete choice models
• Parameter estimation for choice models
• OD-estimation
• Application of the traffic forecasting models on capacity and pricing problems